Officially, much of Kansas is in a slight risk area for severe storms tomorrow, according to SPC. Here is the overall graph, then the probabilities by risk:

The only severe storm risk I find concerning is the broad area where a 10% probability of hail larger than 2 inches could fall. Severe wind and tornado threats are typical, 15% probability for wind above 60mph, 2% risk for any tornado.

SPC, NWS Discussions

NAM forecast soundings around 7pm from Omaha southwestward to Salina show an environment which would support supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have intense updrafts. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop as cells increase in coverage during the early to mid evening. Wind damage will be possible with supercells and short multicell line segments.

SPC Day2 Outlook issued 2023-04-18

The RAP and HRRR models have the dryline located in the Flint Hills at 7pm whereas the NAM has the dryline located along US 281. Regardless of the position of the dryline, storm development along the dryline still appears highly conditional with capping and late arrival of better forcing potentially hindering storm development. Higher certainty in more widespread coverage of strong to severe storms exists along the cold front where much better forcing will be present. The environment during the evening hours will support organized convection capable of very large hail, before the storms transition into a line and wind becomes the threat.

NWS Wichita forecast discussion(paraphrased), 2023-04-18

Our thoughts

I think the key words, especially in relation to the dryline storms, are highly conditional. While I understand the need for the slight risk area, Matt and I agree after looking at this morning’s model runs that the development will probably be much like last Friday played out — pulse-type thunderstorms along the dry line if any storms fire at all and a line of storms with wind and hail after sunset. There will be some warnings, and I’m concerned about the risk for hail damage, but it’s so conditional I’m not going to alter my Wednesday evening plans to go out and storm spot. Maybe late evening, if there’s something happening in Wichita.

After the Storms

Much cooler to end the week, and there is a chance for a Hard Freeze in parts of the state on Saturday morning and Sunday morning. I’ll have more on that in the Thursday morning outlook.