HIGH really is just a reflection of forecaster’s confidence. The potential impact of any given storm has not changed in any meaningful way.
The change in peak probability is the most noticeable facet. Now we see some 45% to 59% hail probability areas introduced. This means we’ve gotten to the place where high-end severe weather is a higher likelihood than not having a storm.
But again, the projected impacts HAVE NOT CHANGED. Only forecasters’ certainty the storms will fire, and be as intense as predicted.
A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening.SPC Update, 8am Monday
and then