Monday Risk Upgraded

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By Scott Roberts

A small part of Kansas is covered by this morning’s upgrade to MODERATE (level 4 of 5 on the risk scale) on the SPC outlook for tomorrow’s storms. Individual risks have also seen probability increases, while the area of potentially-significant impacts has expanded.

Categorical Outlook

Tornado Probability

Hatched area = EF-2 or greater tornadoes possible

Hail Probability

 

Hatched = hail larger than 2″ possible

SPC Outlook Text

Here’s the key part of the outlook:

Confidence has increased in a corridor of greater potential for strong tornadoes and very large hail, with multiple supercells likely to develop across south-central KS and western/central OK late Monday afternoon and continuing through much of the evening… The best chance for strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and giant hail (3-4 inches) should exist with any supercells that can persist Monday evening

Excerpted from SPC Day 2 Outlook released at 1am Sunday May 5th

NWS Discussions

The initial storm mode in central and northern KS may be more linear with the initial development… But as you move southward into southern Kansas and especially Oklahoma, a more discrete mode may be favored during the late afternoon and evening hours…A strengthening [low-level jet] during the evening hours will result in…the best potential for discrete supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong.

Excerpted from NWS Wichita Discussion released 1:33am Sunday regarding Monday threat

[T]he afternoon hours will bring a severe weather risk anywhere east of Scott City to Garden and Liberal line, with the greater risk of high end severe threats like supercell tornadoes farther east into the higher dew point air east of roughly highway 283. The negatively tilted trough should provide storm motions off the boundary as opposed to parallel with the boundary, generally increasing confidence for high impact heterogeneous threats.

Excerpted from NWS Dodge City Discussion released 3:16am Sunday regarding Monday threat

Key Actions Today

  • Review the checklist we posted yesterday and complete anything that’s not done.
  • If you don’t have a basement, contact a friend or neighbor who does and arrange to shelter with them if needed tomorrow. For higher-end tornadoes, the only truly safe space is a basement or a designated storm shelter.
  • Contact family members outside the risk area and tell them who you will be notifying in case of a disater. Remember, cell service will likely be down or overloaded — getting a single text to that designated family member may be all you can do.
  • Consider today whether you will choose to participate in after-school or evening activities tomorrow. Is it time for organizers to cancel activities tomorrow night? NO. But it is time to consider under what circumstances you might decide to stay home.

We’ll do another model deep-dive early afternoon and have a detailed update late in the day.

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