A small part of Kansas is covered by this morning’s upgrade to MODERATE (level 4 of 5 on the risk scale) on the SPC outlook for tomorrow’s storms. Individual risks have also seen probability increases, while the area of potentially-significant impacts has expanded.
Categorical Outlook
Tornado Probability
Hatched area = EF-2 or greater tornadoes possible
Hail Probability
Hatched = hail larger than 2″ possible
SPC Outlook Text
Here’s the key part of the outlook:
Confidence has increased in a corridor of greater potential for strong tornadoes and very large hail, with multiple supercells likely to develop across south-central KS and western/central OK late Monday afternoon and continuing through much of the evening… The best chance for strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and giant hail (3-4 inches) should exist with any supercells that can persist Monday evening
Excerpted from SPC Day 2 Outlook released at 1am Sunday May 5th
NWS Discussions
The initial storm mode in central and northern KS may be more linear with the initial development… But as you move southward into southern Kansas and especially Oklahoma, a more discrete mode may be favored during the late afternoon and evening hours…A strengthening [low-level jet] during the evening hours will result in…the best potential for discrete supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong.
Excerpted from NWS Wichita Discussion released 1:33am Sunday regarding Monday threat
[T]he afternoon hours will bring a severe weather risk anywhere east of Scott City to Garden and Liberal line, with the greater risk of high end severe threats like supercell tornadoes farther east into the higher dew point air east of roughly highway 283. The negatively tilted trough should provide storm motions off the boundary as opposed to parallel with the boundary, generally increasing confidence for high impact heterogeneous threats.
Excerpted from NWS Dodge City Discussion released 3:16am Sunday regarding Monday threat
If you don’t have a basement, contact a friend or neighbor who does and arrange to shelter with them if needed tomorrow. For higher-end tornadoes, the only truly safe space is a basement or a designated storm shelter.
Contact family members outside the risk area and tell them who you will be notifying in case of a disater. Remember, cell service will likely be down or overloaded — getting a single text to that designated family member may be all you can do.
Consider today whether you will choose to participate in after-school or evening activities tomorrow. Is it time for organizers to cancel activities tomorrow night? NO. But it is time to consider under what circumstances you might decide to stay home.
We’ll do another model deep-dive early afternoon and have a detailed update late in the day.
Members Get More
Additional details are available for these membership levels:
BasicEnthusiast
Keep Up to Date - Enable Notifications
OK
No thanks
1 - Query:
SELECT option_value FROM wp_options WHERE option_name = 'siteurl' LIMIT 1
Time: 0.751 ms
2 - Query:
SELECT * FROM wp_pmpro_membership_levels
Time: 0.194 ms
3 - Query:
SET time_zone = "+00:00"
Time: 0.354 ms
4 - Query:
SELECT t0.name AS name_1, t0.value AS value_2, t0.id AS id_3, t0.created_at AS created_at_4, t0.updated_at AS updated_at_5 FROM wp_mailpoet_settings t0
Time: 0.399 ms
5 - Query:
SHOW TABLES LIKE 'wp\\_ewwwio\\_images'
Time: 0.923 ms
6 - Query:
select option_name, option_value from wp_options where option_name like 'mcloud%'
Time: 1.039 ms
7 - Query:
SHOW TABLES LIKE 'wp_mcloud_pending_optimizations'
Time: 0.784 ms
8 - Query:
SHOW TABLES LIKE 'wp_mcloud_bg_optimizations'
Time: 0.613 ms
9 - Query:
SELECT COUNT(*) FROM information_schema.tables
WHERE table_schema = 'dbb845775ff53c4a11a5569812f8843b49'
AND table_name IN ('wp_toolset_associations', 'wp_toolset_connected_elements', 'wp_toolset_relationships', 'wp_toolset_type_sets')
Time: 1.487 ms
10 - Query:
SELECT count(w0_.id) AS sclr_0 FROM wp_mailpoet_subscribers w0_ WHERE w0_.deleted_at IS NULL AND w0_.status IN ('subscribed', 'unconfirmed', 'inactive')
Time: 0.426 ms
11 - Query:
SELECT a.action_id FROM wp_actionscheduler_actions a LEFT JOIN wp_actionscheduler_groups g ON g.group_id=a.group_id WHERE 1=1 AND g.slug='mailpoet-cron' AND a.hook='mailpoet/cron/daemon-trigger' AND a.args='[]' AND a.status IN ('in-progress', 'pending') LIMIT 0, 1
Time: 0.405 ms
12 - Query:
SELECT DISTINCT t.trigger_key
FROM `wp_mailpoet_automations` AS a
JOIN `wp_mailpoet_automation_triggers` as t
WHERE a.status = 'active' AND a.id = t.automation_id
ORDER BY trigger_key DESC
Time: 0.266 ms
13 - Query:
SELECT id FROM wp_pmpro_membership_levels LIMIT 1
Time: 0.250 ms
14 - Query:
SELECT id FROM wp_pmpro_membership_levels WHERE allow_signups = 1 AND (initial_payment > 0 OR billing_amount > 0 OR trial_amount > 0) LIMIT 1
Time: 0.102 ms
15 - Query:
SELECT user_id FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_users WHERE initial_payment > 0 OR billing_amount > 0 OR trial_amount > 0 LIMIT 1
Time: 0.076 ms
16 - Query:
SELECT DISTINCT meta_value FROM wp_postmeta
WHERE meta_key = '_view_loop_template'
AND meta_value != '0'
ORDER BY post_id
Time: 0.507 ms
17 - Query:
SELECT ID, post_name, post_parent, post_type
FROM wp_posts
WHERE post_name IN ('monday-risk-upgraded')
AND post_type IN ('page','attachment')
Time: 0.827 ms
18 - Query:
SELECT wp_posts.ID
FROM wp_posts
WHERE 1=1 AND wp_posts.post_name = 'monday-risk-upgraded' AND wp_posts.post_type = 'post'
ORDER BY wp_posts.post_date DESC
Time: 0.660 ms
19 - Query:
SELECT autoload FROM wp_options WHERE option_name = 'pmpro_visits' LIMIT 1
Time: 0.514 ms
20 - Query:
SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `wp_options`
Time: 0.865 ms
21 - Query:
UPDATE `wp_options` SET `option_value` = 'a:9:{s:5:\"today\";i:812;s:8:\"thisdate\";s:10:\"2025-11-06\";s:4:\"week\";i:3157;s:8:\"thisweek\";s:2:\"24\";s:5:\"month\";i:11317;s:9:\"thismonth\";s:1:\"6\";s:3:\"ytd\";i:257659;s:8:\"thisyear\";s:4:\"2025\";s:7:\"alltime\";i:1474883;}' WHERE `option_name` = 'pmpro_visits'
Time: 0.332 ms
22 - Query:
SELECT ID
FROM wp_posts
INNER JOIN wp_postmeta
ON ( wp_posts.ID = wp_postmeta.post_id )
INNER JOIN wp_postmeta AS mt1
ON ( wp_posts.ID = mt1.post_id )
WHERE 1=1
AND ( ( wp_postmeta.meta_key = '_seopress_redirections_enabled'
AND wp_postmeta.meta_value = 'yes' ) )
AND post_title = 'monday-risk-upgraded/'
AND post_type = 'seopress_404'
AND post_status = 'publish'
AND ( ( mt1.meta_key = '_seopress_redirections_logged_status'
AND mt1.meta_value = 'only_not_logged_in' )
OR ( mt1.meta_key = '_seopress_redirections_logged_status'
AND mt1.meta_value = 'both' ) )
Time: 0.893 ms
23 - Query:
SELECT ID
FROM wp_posts
WHERE 1=1
AND post_title = 'monday-risk-upgraded/'
AND post_type = 'seopress_404'
Time: 0.556 ms
24 - Query:
SELECT ID
FROM wp_posts
INNER JOIN wp_postmeta
ON ( wp_posts.ID = wp_postmeta.post_id )
INNER JOIN wp_postmeta AS mt1
ON ( wp_posts.ID = mt1.post_id )
WHERE 1=1
AND ( ( wp_postmeta.meta_key = '_seopress_redirections_enabled'
AND wp_postmeta.meta_value = 'yes' ) )
AND post_title = ''
AND post_type = 'seopress_404'
AND post_status = 'publish'
AND ( ( mt1.meta_key = '_seopress_redirections_logged_status'
AND mt1.meta_value = 'only_not_logged_in' )
OR ( mt1.meta_key = '_seopress_redirections_logged_status'
AND mt1.meta_value = 'both' ) )
Time: 0.124 ms
25 - Query:
SELECT ID
FROM wp_posts
WHERE 1=1
AND post_title = ''
AND post_type = 'seopress_404'
Time: 0.069 ms
26 - Query:
SELECT ID
FROM wp_posts
INNER JOIN wp_postmeta
ON ( wp_posts.ID = wp_postmeta.post_id )
INNER JOIN wp_postmeta AS mt1
ON ( wp_posts.ID = mt1.post_id )
WHERE 1=1
AND ( ( wp_postmeta.meta_key = '_seopress_redirections_enabled'
AND wp_postmeta.meta_value = 'yes' ) )
AND post_title = 'monday-risk-upgraded'
AND post_type = 'seopress_404'
AND post_status = 'publish'
AND ( ( mt1.meta_key = '_seopress_redirections_logged_status'
AND mt1.meta_value = 'only_not_logged_in' )
OR ( mt1.meta_key = '_seopress_redirections_logged_status'
AND mt1.meta_value = 'both' ) )
Time: 0.750 ms
27 - Query:
SELECT ID
FROM wp_posts
WHERE 1=1
AND post_title = 'monday-risk-upgraded'
AND post_type = 'seopress_404'
Time: 0.229 ms
28 - Query:
SELECT p.ID FROM wp_posts AS p WHERE p.post_date < '2024-05-05 05:35:17' AND p.post_type = 'post' AND p.post_status = 'publish' ORDER BY p.post_date DESC LIMIT 1
Time: 0.901 ms
29 - Query:
SELECT p.ID FROM wp_posts AS p WHERE p.post_date > '2024-05-05 05:35:17' AND p.post_type = 'post' AND p.post_status = 'publish' ORDER BY p.post_date ASC LIMIT 1
Time: 0.764 ms
30 - Query:
SELECT DISTINCT t.term_id
FROM wp_terms AS t INNER JOIN wp_term_taxonomy AS tt ON t.term_id = tt.term_id INNER JOIN wp_term_relationships AS tr ON tr.term_taxonomy_id = tt.term_taxonomy_id
WHERE tt.taxonomy IN ('category', 'post_tag', 'wpmf_tag', 'event') AND tr.object_id IN (127160)
ORDER BY t.name ASC
Time: 0.298 ms
31 - Query:
SELECT DISTINCT t.term_id
FROM wp_terms AS t INNER JOIN wp_term_taxonomy AS tt ON t.term_id = tt.term_id INNER JOIN wp_term_relationships AS tr ON tr.term_taxonomy_id = tt.term_taxonomy_id
WHERE tt.taxonomy IN ('category') AND tr.object_id IN (127160)
ORDER BY tt.parent DESC
Time: 0.350 ms
32 - Query:
SELECT autoload FROM wp_options WHERE option_name = 'pmpro_views' LIMIT 1
Time: 0.619 ms
33 - Query:
UPDATE `wp_options` SET `option_value` = 'a:9:{s:5:\"today\";i:995;s:8:\"thisdate\";s:10:\"2025-11-06\";s:4:\"week\";i:3758;s:8:\"thisweek\";s:2:\"24\";s:5:\"month\";i:14020;s:9:\"thismonth\";s:1:\"6\";s:3:\"ytd\";i:265744;s:8:\"thisyear\";s:4:\"2025\";s:7:\"alltime\";i:975787;}' WHERE `option_name` = 'pmpro_views'
Time: 0.406 ms
34 - Query:
(SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_categories mc LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mc.membership_id = m.id WHERE mc.category_id IN(23) AND m.id IS NOT NULL) UNION (SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_pages mp LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mp.membership_id = m.id WHERE mp.page_id = '127160')
Time: 0.281 ms
35 - Query:
(SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_categories mc LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mc.membership_id = m.id WHERE mc.category_id IN(23) AND m.id IS NOT NULL) UNION (SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_pages mp LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mp.membership_id = m.id WHERE mp.page_id = '127160')
Time: 0.316 ms
36 - Query:
(SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_categories mc LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mc.membership_id = m.id WHERE mc.category_id IN(23) AND m.id IS NOT NULL) UNION (SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_pages mp LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mp.membership_id = m.id WHERE mp.page_id = '127160')
Time: 0.298 ms
37 - Query:
SELECT post_id, meta_key, meta_value FROM wp_postmeta WHERE post_id IN (127162) ORDER BY meta_id ASC
Time: 0.782 ms
38 - Query:
SELECT * FROM wp_posts WHERE ID = 127162 LIMIT 1
Time: 0.991 ms
39 - Query:
SELECT post_id, meta_key, meta_value FROM wp_postmeta WHERE post_id IN (127163) ORDER BY meta_id ASC
Time: 0.712 ms
40 - Query:
SELECT wp_posts.* FROM wp_posts WHERE ID IN (127163)
Time: 0.626 ms
41 - Query:
SELECT post_id, meta_value FROM wp_postmeta WHERE meta_key = '_wp_attached_file' AND meta_value = '2024/05/ks_swody2.png'
Time: 44.524 ms
42 - Query:
SELECT post_id, meta_value FROM wp_postmeta WHERE meta_key = '_wp_attached_file' AND meta_value = '2024/05/ks_swody2_torn.png'
Time: 41.357 ms
43 - Query:
SELECT post_id, meta_value FROM wp_postmeta WHERE meta_key = '_wp_attached_file' AND meta_value = '2024/05/ks_swody2_hail.png'
Time: 41.110 ms
44 - Query:
(SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_categories mc LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mc.membership_id = m.id WHERE mc.category_id IN(23) AND m.id IS NOT NULL) UNION (SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_pages mp LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mp.membership_id = m.id WHERE mp.page_id = '127160')
Time: 0.387 ms
45 - Query:
SELECT DISTINCT(mp.page_id)
FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_pages mp
LEFT JOIN wp_posts p ON mp.page_id = p.ID
WHERE p.post_type IN('page', 'post')
Time: 0.297 ms
46 - Query:
SELECT DISTINCT(tr.object_id)
FROM wp_term_relationships tr
LEFT JOIN wp_posts p ON tr.object_id = p.ID
WHERE tr.term_taxonomy_id IN(
SELECT category_id
FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_categories
)
AND p.post_type IN('page', 'post')
Time: 0.191 ms
47 - Query:
(SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_categories mc LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mc.membership_id = m.id WHERE mc.category_id IN(20,153) AND m.id IS NOT NULL) UNION (SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_pages mp LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mp.membership_id = m.id WHERE mp.page_id = '128006')
Time: 0.319 ms
48 - Query:
(SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_categories mc LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mc.membership_id = m.id WHERE mc.category_id IN(20,153) AND m.id IS NOT NULL) UNION (SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_pages mp LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mp.membership_id = m.id WHERE mp.page_id = '128033')
Time: 0.250 ms
49 - Query:
(SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_categories mc LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mc.membership_id = m.id WHERE mc.category_id IN(23) AND m.id IS NOT NULL) UNION (SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_pages mp LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mp.membership_id = m.id WHERE mp.page_id = '127306')
Time: 0.223 ms
50 - Query:
(SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_categories mc LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mc.membership_id = m.id WHERE mc.category_id IN(23) AND m.id IS NOT NULL) UNION (SELECT m.id, m.name FROM wp_pmpro_memberships_pages mp LEFT JOIN wp_pmpro_membership_levels m ON mp.membership_id = m.id WHERE mp.page_id = '127215')
Time: 0.249 ms
51 - Query:
select * from `wp_fluentform_forms` where `status` = 'published' and `id` = '19' limit 1
Time: 0.392 ms
52 - Query:
select * from `wp_fluentform_form_meta` where `form_id` = '19' and `meta_key` = 'formSettings' limit 1
Time: 0.155 ms
53 - Query:
select * from `wp_fluentform_form_meta` where `form_id` = '19' and `meta_key` = '_ff_selected_style' limit 1
Time: 0.281 ms
54 - Query:
select * from `wp_fluentform_form_meta` where `form_id` = '19' and `meta_key` in ('_custom_form_css', '_custom_form_js')
Time: 0.282 ms
55 - Query:
select * from `wp_fluentform_form_meta` where `form_id` = '19' and `meta_key` in ('_ff_form_styler_css', '_ff_selected_style', 'ffs_default')
Time: 0.095 ms
56 - Query:
select * from `wp_fluentform_form_meta` where (`form_id` = '19' and `meta_key` = 'ffs_default') limit 1
Time: 0.187 ms
57 - Query:
select * from `wp_fluentform_form_meta` where (`form_id` = '19' and `meta_key` = '_ff_form_styles') limit 1
Time: 0.110 ms
