From SPC Seasonably strong boundary-layer heating/mixing is ongoing, within a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor wrapping into the vicinity of a modest surface cyclone centered west/northwest of Hill City, KS. To the east of this axis, weak to modest low-level moisture return on southerly low-level flow continues. Beneath rather steep mid-level lapse rates associated with warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, it appears that this is contributing to mixed-layer CAPE up to around 1500 J/kg, east
A handful of severe storms are possible this afternoon. There remains a bust potential in south-central Kansas, as a formidable cap is in place. If storms break the cap, hail to golfball size, winds to 70 mph are possible. There is a non-zero tornado threat, which will be driven by storm interactions.
Isolated to scattered severe storms possible in central, north central and northeast Kansas tonight. It’s far from a foregone conclusion; there’s still a blue sky bust potential. But storms that are able to break the formidable cap would generate quarter- to golf ball-size hail. Tornado probability is very low, but non-zero.
Here’s a highlight from the NWS Situation reports around the region. The reports themselves are linked at the bottom. I will have an Outlook Update shortly, and Matt will produce a new Briefing around mid-day. Don’t forget our Facebook Live at 2pm with Matt and Mark Bogner!