Given the long weekend with storms impacting Omaha Friday and southeast Kansas Saturday, along with the fact we’re entering an active season, this outlook will not be very much of a deep dive. Unfortunately, I just don’t have a lot of time. What I have looked at tells me things bear watching for Tuesday and Wednesday. There had been indications for Wednesday for several days, but the risk has increased tomorrow night for much of the state.

Model Consistentcy

For tomorrow night, the models are fairly consistent in storm development in the 6pm to 10pm time range east of US-281 and south of I-70. There are model disagreements, but yet there is much more consistency than I’ve been seeing so far this year. This is only an example — the major global models (GFS and Euro) as well as the NAM, HRR, NAM3k, and MPAS, all look similar.

This is one model’s predicted radar presentation at 9pm Tuesday, CDT:

SPC Outlooks

Tuesday

Main risk is large hail and some damaging wind, but a tornado cannot be ruled out if the storms stay mostly separate, as shown in the model above.

Wednesday

The shape of this area is intriguing, and somewhat instructive. You can almost pinpoint the triple point in the Hill City vicinity, with warm front-related action along the north state line and dryline storms possible from Dodge City/WaKeeney east.

Look for a detailed outlook on that event this evening or first thing tomorrow.

Safety Reminder

As we enter the busy part of the storm season, the weekend storms have provided us a glimpse of what can happen. It has been quite some time since we’ve had an active spring, the important thing is to keep a level mindset on the weather risks — neither complacent nor weather-weary. If you’re finding your stress or anxiety levels going up a bit with each successive threat day, don’t forget your self-care! Besides adequate rest, food, and water, do something you enjoy! The weather is going to happen however it happens, you’ll react better if you’ve built up some mental margin in advance.

Our hearts go out to residents of Elkhorn NE, Minden IA and Sulpher OK

Here are non-profits you can donate to where the money goes directly to help those impacted. Both have teams on the ground already in both locations impacted by this weekend’s storms.

Convoy of Hope | Samaritan’s Purse

Please be aware of Internet scams claiming to raise money for individuals or groups hurt by these tornadoes. Donations are by far the best way we who don’t live close to the damaged areas can help — quickly and in a manner that the help can be used to meet the needs.