The multi day Kansas severe weather episode, looks to come to an end on Saturday. The real question is, “how big of a severe weather day will this be?”. This day has had my attention for the last few days, as possibly being a sneaky bad type of severe weather day. But there are lots of questions still to be worked out over the next 24 hours. Earlier in the week, I questioned whether the low level moisture would work its way back west across Kansas, after getting pushed east by today’s dryline. Most of the model solutions now suggest, that YES, the low level moisture will definitely make it back into the eastern half of Kansas, especially for areas east of a Great Bend to Pratt line, due to the upper air pattern taking on a more of a “negative tilt”. So low level moisture and a moderately unstable airmass will be in place for Saturday. Check. A strong storm system will lead to lots of ascent, and deep layer shear, as the dryline pushes into south central KS. Check again. Directional shear looks impressive, with long curvy directional shear profiles for supercell formation. Big time Check. Most of the things mentioned so far, supports big supercells with very large hail (2 to 3 in.) and damaging winds.

But, there are some things, that may lead to a “failure point”, that may keep the severe chances lower than previously expected. First, there is the potential for convection developing in central Oklahoma early on Saturday, and racing north up along I-35, through Saturday Midday. This morning convection, may have a strong to severe chance as well, as it moves north. But, it may do one of the two things as it moves into Kansas. It could “work over” the atmosphere, which would limit the “high end” severe potential for Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening, as the atmosphere will not recover in time. Or, if it occurs early enough on Saturday, it could “prime the pump” for Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. The old saying goes “morning rains, lead to afternoon pain”. If this scenario plays out, than the chances for big supercells greatly increase, with the potential for evening and night time tornadoes also greatly increasing.

I have heard the words “tornado outbreak” batted about over the last few days. When it comes to Saturday. As it stands right now, I don’t think it will lead to an outbreak of tornadoes. But are a few strong tornadoes possible with this setup. YES, very much so!! So just because it may not turn into an “outbreak”, doesn’t mean you should let your guard down. One or two long track supercells with strong tornadoes can make for a horrible night.