Climatologically speaking, severe weather chances really start to “ramp up” the last week of April into early May across Kansas. Well, the end of the week is no exception. Before I get started, NOW is the time review your emergency action plans for severe weather. Multiple severe weather chances lie ahead for Kansas for Thursday through Saturday.

So lets get started. Strong to severe storm chances may get going late Wednesday night or early on Thursday, with elevated storms capable of producing some dime to quarter size hail across south central and southeast Kansas.

But, that’s just the start. By Thursday afternoon, models are in fairly good agreement in a low pressure area developing across western KS, with a sharp dryline located west of Dodge City. There is a chance of isolated severe supercell thunderstorms developing along this dryline, for Thusday afternoon, with the initial threat being very large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter) and damaging winds to 70 mph. But as the supercells move off the dryline, towards evening, there is a threat for the “potential for strong to intense tornadoes” (SPC Day 3 outlook wording), if the storms can remain discrete. NWS DDC even suspects that SPC may go with a moderate risk for portions of SW KS. Stay tuned.

Current SPC Outlook for Thursday

Probabilities by Risk

Tornado

Large Hail

Damaging wind

Thursday night, the severe storm chances will push into central and south central KS, with large hail and damaging winds becoming the dominant severe weather factor. There is still a small tornado chance, into the nighttime hours, with any kind of embedded supercell structures as they move east. Like the early morning, Greenwood Co. tornadoes of April 16th.

The severe weather threat for Friday will be across eastern KS and southeast KS, as the dryline pushes to along I-35. A small “window of opportunity” exists, for the eastern row of KS counties, for supercells and all modes of severe weather for Friday afternoon, but this chance looks “short lived” as the storms move quickly off into Missouri. This looks like a lower risk chance, but still worth a mention. Something to keep an eye on.

Current SPC Probability Outlook for Friday

But we aren’t done yet!! Low level moisture looks to “slosh” back to the west for Saturday, especially into the Flint Hills and for areas along and east of the KS Turnpike, including Wichita! This could be a sneaky severe weather day, that no one seems to be talking about, yet. Big elongated wind profiles, could lead to supercells again, with ALL modes of severe weather again possible across the southeast 2/3rds of Kansas including the Flint Hills.

Current SPC Probability Outlook for Saturday