We have a situation this afternoon that we’ve seen a couple of times already this season. A low spinning through northern Kansas, a possibility of storms producing hail and tornadoes near it, then a dryline in south central and southeast Kansas, followed by a cold front which will crash through the state tonight. A little over a week ago, this scenario played out with only the cold front storms being anything meaningful, with some low-end severe hail and wind. It played out again last Friday, nearly the same way, except the stuff on the dryline did break the cap and storm for a few hours prompting warnings but little to no damage.
This scenario is a bit too close for comfort to last April 29th, though, too. Today, nearly everyone (me included) believes the cap will remain firmly in place, especially in southern Kansas. Up near the low, there could be some storms, again having baseball hail and tornadoes as possible risks. But most locations will have to wait till during the night for a line of storms to cross the state.
SPC Outlook Update
These are the mid-day issuance.
All of today and tonight’s activity will be east of US 281 (Russell to Pratt to Medicine Lodge line) and potentially east of I-135/US 81 (Concordia, Salina, Wichita, Wellington line). I think any tornadoes remain north of I-70, but will be watching the area of the dryline carefully 4-5pm just in case the storms shown here actually occur … because if they do happen, they could be sleeper cells, bringing the brief possibility for tornadoes and hail.
Here is what I consider the more-likely outcome…this is 12 hours later, around 4am