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Valentine’s Weekend Storm Update: Friday evening

NWS Offices in the region have updated their forecasts in light of the morning model runs, which are persisting in pushing the worst of this storm system to the south. But…there is still a good bit of uncertainty!

Here are Situation Report graphics released this afternoon by NWS Wichita and NWS Goodland.



NWS Dodge City did not issue an afternoon Situation Report. We believe the impacts in the NWS Hastings, NWS Topeka and NWS Springfield areas will not be nearly as significant, with the exception of dangerous cold, which persists across the region through mid-week. For thosw who would like to read the entire report, here they are:

NWS ICT Situation Report issued 2021-02-14 PM || NWS GLD Situation Report issued 2021-02-12 PM

As Matt discussed in our latest briefing, there is still a number of things that make the snowfall forecast uncertain. These include small differences in temperature in the snow growth zone aloft, whether any instability works into the picture and causes one or more very heavy snow bands, and the exact timing and path of the low pressure center. At this point we are not adjusting forecast snowfall totals, but we anticipate it may become necessary after the evening model runs come in overnight.

Reminder: Facebook Live discussion of this system and these forecast challenges, with Matthew Harding and Mark Bogner, Saturday afternoon at 2pm CST on our Facebook Page!

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Grey skies with a few showers will be the weather story to finish out the workweek, but the payoff is a beautiful weekend. We are also closely monitoring what appears to be the first significant severe weather threat of the season for the state.

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Though he passed nearly two months ago, our hearts are still hurting over the loss of a valued member of the KSStorm.Info team — Steve Boleski. As we enter storm season we offer a look at some of the chasing photos Steve was able to take over the past four seasons.

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