Overnight models have shifted the threat a bit north. While evening and nighttime thunderstorms are possible from about US50 north, we believe the higher threat is going to be concentrated to the north of US56, up to the I70 vicinity. Models and discussions this morning have noted the strength of the cap south of US50 in particular, and that may keep things from extending much south of there.
Today’s threat is far from a slam-dunk. Far more of us will see nothing over the next 18 hours than will see thunderstorms or severe weather. Here is a selection of model-predicted radar appearance over approximately the same time frame.
The FV3 (top loop) is the model that comes closest to how I think things will play out. The WRF (bottom) is the second-most likely, in my opinion. The center one is just there to illustrate the spread of the models — I believe the NAM3k is out to lunch on this system.
Here’s the updated SPC outlook graphic issued at 1am:
At the moment I’m teetering between Sterling and Stafford as my jumping off spot. Yesterday I was thinking activity would be most concentrated within 20 miles or so of Quivira Wildlife Refuge; I think that may hedge north some and be more along the US56 and K-156 corridors.
Next update scheduled for approximately noon CDT.