2019 0506 Near Marquette

Severe Weather Threat Update: Tuesday, April 6, 2021

We are continuing to monitor the potential for a handful of severe storms this afternoon across parts of Central Kansas. This will not be a widespread severe weather event, but the storms that do develop could get quite rowdy this afternoon and evening.

Morning model runs continue to suggest storms may develop after 4 pm in two different parts of Central Kansas. The first is generally bounded in an area from Smith Center to Phillipsburg to Hays to Russell, while the second area is from Great Bend to Rush Center to Greensburg to Pratt.

Our belief is that the strongest activity will be in the second area, but in both areas, damaging winds (60-70 mph) and large hail (1-2 inches in diameter, greatest early in storm evolution) are the main threats. However, there is a non-zero tornado threat, which will be driven primarily by storm interactions and mergers.  Once the storms grow upscale, the tornado threat will come to an end.

Here is a selection of model-predicted radar appearances over approximately the same time frame, 4 pm this evening thru midnight tonight:

HRRR:
hrrr 4 6 21WRF-ARW:

wrf arw 4 6 21

We feel a combination of the HRRR/WRF-ARW models continue to have the best handle on the situation today. That said, if the capping inversion is too strong, there could be no storm development in the southern-most area. It is the one major fail point to today’s chase.

All of that said, here is our risk analysis for this afternoon:

2021 04 06 severe at a glance

Scott & I will be headed west to the US 281 corridor, between Pratt and St. John, as a jumping-off point late this afternoon. We’ll see you from the road!

Share this post

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on pinterest
Share on print
Share on email

Outlook

Grey skies with a few showers will be the weather story to finish out the workweek, but the payoff is a beautiful weekend. We are also closely monitoring what appears to be the first significant severe weather threat of the season for the state.

Today’s Weather Impact

Search

Recent Posts

A Tribute

2020 04 20

Though he passed nearly two months ago, our hearts are still hurting over the loss of a valued member of the KSStorm.Info team — Steve Boleski. As we enter storm season we offer a look at some of the chasing photos Steve was able to take over the past four seasons.

Login to your account