Seasonably strong boundary-layer heating/mixing is ongoing, within a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor wrapping into the vicinity of a modest surface cyclone centered west/northwest of Hill City, KS. To the east of this axis, weak to modest low-level moisture return on southerly low-level flow continues. Beneath rather steep mid-level lapse rates associated with warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, it appears that this is contributing to mixed-layer CAPE up to around 1500 J/kg, east of Dodge City through Russell, KS, into the vicinity of Lexington, NE.
From NWS Dodge City
Shallow cumulus clouds have begun to develop along the dry line from Hodgeman county southward into Clark county. Thunderstorm initiation is expected by 5 pm. These storms will move northeastward and eastward during the evening, with the most favored areas for severe storms (including very large hail, damaging winds and possibly an isolated tornado) from Stafford and Edwards counties southward and eastward into Kiowa, Barber and Pratt counties. Dodge City is behind the dry line so that severe storms are not expected this far west. But eastern Ford county could have severe weather.