Our forecast highlights over the next week: well above average temperatures for tomorrow and Saturday. Windy conditions on Saturday. Active weather returns Sunday night into Monday and again on Tuesday/Wednesday.
First, the heat: models are keying in on a surface low that develops tomorrow night into Saturday. This will bring windy conditions, and with the warm-season grasses and harvested fields being abundant, the wildfire danger will increase. Add that to the chance for record-breaking high temperatures with a high in the mid and upper 90’s across the state.
Storm Chances on the Horizon
Storm chances arrive Sunday as a fast-moving system approached from the southwest. Models this morning have shifted the severe weather risk to the south, completely into Oklahoma and North Texas, with highest risks from Oklahoma City to the south and east. But models are still in some disagreement, so we believe the possibility of at least scattered severe weather still exists in southern Kansas.
Looking ahead to Tuesday and Wednesday, models are in good agreement about a powerful system ejecting onto the plains in this time period. Ther is still disagreement on the timing and especially the trajectory of the low as it ejects, with some models depicting a flatter path for the low across Oklahoma and others projecting a steeper path into the central or northern plains. Right now the SPC has a risk area that covers much of Oklahoma and barely any of Kansas at all, but if the slower movement turns out to be the case we would see a risk Tuesday overnight into Wednesday afternoon.
We will post a more detailed discussion of the Sunday event tomorrow as models come into better agreement.