One Reason I Think Tornado Threat Wednesday is Limited

From @USTornadoes via Twitter: “The strength of the cap can be the difference between blue skies and a mile-wide wedge.”

Two words… THE CAP

[The] cap is a section of the atmosphere where temperatures briefly increase with height, which is usually in the middle levels of the atmosphere. This cap creates a stable layer that unstable air below it has to try to break through in order to create a storm.

Cap: Blue is Bad

More of the models show an incredible cap developing than show it weakening enough, in the right place and at the right time. If you’re interested, this article explains why it’s such a big deal.

An argument can be made that the cap won’t weaken enough for any storms at all. But I’m thinking the forward movement of the cold front (to the southeast) will be enough to overcome the cap for a tight line of storms. The general mode of linear storms is wind and hail. Tomorrow may bust in the daytime, but I don’t think we make it through 10pm without confirmed severe storms in central Kansas.

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100 Comments

    1. I’m speaking at a senior living facility in Salina at 12:45; still waiting on confirmation of a possible driver to decide on chase plans. I’d be looking to go down to Great Bend or so and come back toward Salina before breaking off the chase.

    2. Sounds good. I live 15 miles NW of Salina, so I will decide where to go sometime tomorrow. I have a 4pm appointment in Salina so hopefully it waits until I am done with that lol

    1. I’m speaking at a senior living facility in Salina at 12:45; still waiting on confirmation of a possible driver to decide on chase plans. I’d be looking to go down to Great Bend or so and come back toward Salina before breaking off the chase.

    2. Sounds good. I live 15 miles NW of Salina, so I will decide where to go sometime tomorrow. I have a 4pm appointment in Salina so hopefully it waits until I am done with that lol

    1. I’m speaking at a senior living facility in Salina at 12:45; still waiting on confirmation of a possible driver to decide on chase plans. I’d be looking to go down to Great Bend or so and come back toward Salina before breaking off the chase.

    2. Sounds good. I live 15 miles NW of Salina, so I will decide where to go sometime tomorrow. I have a 4pm appointment in Salina so hopefully it waits until I am done with that lol

    1. I’m speaking at a senior living facility in Salina at 12:45; still waiting on confirmation of a possible driver to decide on chase plans. I’d be looking to go down to Great Bend or so and come back toward Salina before breaking off the chase.

    2. Sounds good. I live 15 miles NW of Salina, so I will decide where to go sometime tomorrow. I have a 4pm appointment in Salina so hopefully it waits until I am done with that lol

    1. Pretty much most of the state is,it’s just a when question. What little tornadic threat there is should fall off by the time it reaches our neck of the woods and squall line out to just wind and hail/heavy rain.

    1. Pretty much most of the state is,it’s just a when question. What little tornadic threat there is should fall off by the time it reaches our neck of the woods and squall line out to just wind and hail/heavy rain.

    1. Pretty much most of the state is,it’s just a when question. What little tornadic threat there is should fall off by the time it reaches our neck of the woods and squall line out to just wind and hail/heavy rain.

    1. Pretty much most of the state is,it’s just a when question. What little tornadic threat there is should fall off by the time it reaches our neck of the woods and squall line out to just wind and hail/heavy rain.

    1. Yeah, Nate, me too. Some rain, some wind, a little soft golfball size hail, and some nice structure. That’s what I hope for tomorrow. Enough that my live stream makes it on KWCH or 12.2.

    1. Yeah, Nate, me too. Some rain, some wind, a little soft golfball size hail, and some nice structure. That’s what I hope for tomorrow. Enough that my live stream makes it on KWCH or 12.2.

    1. Yeah, Nate, me too. Some rain, some wind, a little soft golfball size hail, and some nice structure. That’s what I hope for tomorrow. Enough that my live stream makes it on KWCH or 12.2.

    1. Yeah, Nate, me too. Some rain, some wind, a little soft golfball size hail, and some nice structure. That’s what I hope for tomorrow. Enough that my live stream makes it on KWCH or 12.2.

    1. Steve, in Trousdale you probably aren’t far from right in that statement. If you’re in Great Bend at the end of business hours, I think you may miss the storms….I’m preliminarily planning to start my chase day there about 4, with the thought I’ll be moving north or east for the most part.

    2. If you’re in Edwards county scanning the county emergency radio. My call # is 663 with the Trousdale Fire Dept. I live about 5 miles south of Belpre. Be careful out there.

    1. Steve, in Trousdale you probably aren’t far from right in that statement. If you’re in Great Bend at the end of business hours, I think you may miss the storms….I’m preliminarily planning to start my chase day there about 4, with the thought I’ll be moving north or east for the most part.

    2. If you’re in Edwards county scanning the county emergency radio. My call # is 663 with the Trousdale Fire Dept. I live about 5 miles south of Belpre. Be careful out there.

    1. Steve, in Trousdale you probably aren’t far from right in that statement. If you’re in Great Bend at the end of business hours, I think you may miss the storms….I’m preliminarily planning to start my chase day there about 4, with the thought I’ll be moving north or east for the most part.

    2. If you’re in Edwards county scanning the county emergency radio. My call # is 663 with the Trousdale Fire Dept. I live about 5 miles south of Belpre. Be careful out there.

    1. Steve, in Trousdale you probably aren’t far from right in that statement. If you’re in Great Bend at the end of business hours, I think you may miss the storms….I’m preliminarily planning to start my chase day there about 4, with the thought I’ll be moving north or east for the most part.

    2. If you’re in Edwards county scanning the county emergency radio. My call # is 663 with the Trousdale Fire Dept. I live about 5 miles south of Belpre. Be careful out there.

    1. I think it will be below the severe criteria by the time it gets to Wichita. Thursday may see some severe stuff in the southeast corner, but more likely in central and southern Oklahoma.

    1. I think it will be below the severe criteria by the time it gets to Wichita. Thursday may see some severe stuff in the southeast corner, but more likely in central and southern Oklahoma.

    1. I think it will be below the severe criteria by the time it gets to Wichita. Thursday may see some severe stuff in the southeast corner, but more likely in central and southern Oklahoma.

    1. I think it will be below the severe criteria by the time it gets to Wichita. Thursday may see some severe stuff in the southeast corner, but more likely in central and southern Oklahoma.

    1. You should see earlier development than I will down here, I’d keep an eye/ear on things, be ready to take hail and wind precautions. But way it looks now really the isolated tornado threat,what there might be if any, is concentrated southwest Kansas.

    1. You should see earlier development than I will down here, I’d keep an eye/ear on things, be ready to take hail and wind precautions. But way it looks now really the isolated tornado threat,what there might be if any, is concentrated southwest Kansas.

    1. You should see earlier development than I will down here, I’d keep an eye/ear on things, be ready to take hail and wind precautions. But way it looks now really the isolated tornado threat,what there might be if any, is concentrated southwest Kansas.

    1. You should see earlier development than I will down here, I’d keep an eye/ear on things, be ready to take hail and wind precautions. But way it looks now really the isolated tornado threat,what there might be if any, is concentrated southwest Kansas.

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