This is a development I was hoping not to see. But with each model run the system is slowing down, which has two main effects:
It allows more time for moisture to get in place, and the nighttime moisture (Low Level Jet) tends to give things an additional spin
Nighttime severe storms may not be correlated with either an increase or decrease in property damage, but nighttime tornadoes are strongly correlated with increased loss of life.
A factor that lessens the risk to an extent is if the storms are in a “messy” mode the way current forecasts show, that would lead to more of a hail/wind damage threat because the close proximity of updrafts means the inflow will not be as productive for any one storm as it would if there were a lone supercell or a large clsuter of storms (MCS).
I’ll do a deeper analysis this evening and post a detailed outlook before bedtime after consulting with the rest of the team. Were I going out alone or with only one other person, the shift in timing would likley be enough to keep me home. The Monday team’s total experience and qualifications may mitigate the personal risk to an extent, we’ll see.
Outlook Graphics
Please pay attention to the hatched area. This indicates any hazard from these storms may be significant — very large to giant hail, wind 75+ mph, and a strong tornado or two.
Monday night, pick t-shirts and workout pants, sweats, or pajama pants
Be sure your phones are fully charged
Put shoes by the bed and go bags in your shelter
You need to put on shoes when you go to shelter, as you may come out to debris on the ground which can cut your feet or worse. Close-toed, stuydy shoes are a must, no slippers, flip-flops, Crocs or sandals
Having the go bag in the shelter with you means you know where it is. It does you no good if the wind blows it down the street.
Consider putting your pets in their crate or carrier before the storm and give them any needed calming medicines well before the storms.
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