It’s been quite a while since we’ve had a possibility of severe weather that includes Kansas for a multi-day stretch, with the classic signs of a negative-tilt cold front (slants from southwest to northeast) and good Gulf moisture building in ahead.
SPC is not putting out a risk area for Tuesday yet, but their discussion does indicate the possibility of plains storms. In looking briefly at the models, I’m not seeing the kind of agreement I’d like between them. GFS (the US mid-range model) is solidly showing classic dryline storms Wednesday and Thursday, while the ECMWF (AKA the Euro) sets the ingredients up differently, and in my thinking, less powerfully.
Over the years, GFS has always seemed to me to have a tendency to move springtime storm systems a bit faster than they actually develop. so I’m not really high on Tuesday at this point, at least in Kansas. Wednesday looks like a good chasing day even if the system slows a little, and there’s often some magic to be found on the day before “the day.” Thursday is “the day” of this system according to the models right now. Threat would be Dallas to Chicago, and only include a bit of Kansas. I would not be surprised to see that pulled back to the west as we get closer.
The SPC outlooks for Wednesday and Thursday, cropped to the plains:
Again, I’d expect to see both of those creep back to the west a bit with each daily forecast round. 30% total severe risk, especially this far in advance, is quite meaningful. This is a system to pay attention to.
Personal commitments over the Easter weekend will keep me from doing a new head-up post until tomorrow afternoon. Monday’s outlook email will look at the system thoroughly, and I’ll start regular briefings on Monday morning. If you don’t already receive our Outlooks and Briefings by email, please consider a free membership now!