Mark’s Take on the 2018 Severe Weather Potential

To me, this spring’s severe weather threat hinges on one word. Drought. It is a word that has become all to familiar, it seems over the last 10 years here in Kansas. In my experience, the dry line follows the drought and with a hot, dry, baked soil extending now all of the way to east-central Kansas, I see the dry line making far too many early and fast passages through southcentral Kansas and firing up around sunset somewhere east of Greenwood county and off into southwestern Missouri. Once again, it seems like a scenario that has played out at least 3 of the last 10 years, thanks mainly to drought.

The latest Drought Monitor from the University of Nebraska at Lincoln would support this hypothesis.

I foresee the dryline mainly setting up along the eastern boundary of the severe drought area.

The latest 90 day forecast from the Climate Prediction Center centered on May also may support this hypothesis

I hope I am wrong and we don’t spend the spring looking wistfully off to the east over “hills and trees” country at the rain and storms that WE should be getting, but my gut tells me that may be a familiar theme this spring.

Time will tell!

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Heads-Up Today — Somewhere

Just hours out and the models still really don’t have a consensus on it. I’ve given myself a massive headache trying to make a target decision, and am still wavering. Wichita: definitely a large hail risk. Tornadoes possible…if they occur, they would be potentially strong. We’re heading out around 1pm — 50% shot we’ll go east, 50% shot we’ll go south. Much more detail within the post…click the title to read.


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