Just hours out and the models still really don’t have a consensus on it. I’ve given myself a massive headache trying to make a target decision, and am still wavering. As much as I don’t like doing it, this post is going to be mostly filled with other people’s stuff.
First, outlooks from SPC. As I expected, the moderate risk area has been extended. They didn’t bring it back as far northwest as I’d anticipated. But a large part of southeast Kansas is now in it.
They also believe strong(>EF-2) tornadoes and large hail (> 2″, or the size of a large hen egg) are possible for much of Kansas southeast of the Turnpike.
With the models being such a muddled mess to me, I’m having to default back to mostly interpreting SPC and local NWS discussions and outlooks. Here are the things I’m keying on.
Hazardous Weather Outlook, Wichita NWS:
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS…WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLFBALLS…DAMAGING 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS…AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.
AREAS AT GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT…A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS.
Latest Mesoscale Discussion, preparatory to issuing a watch for SE Kansas:
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z 4 KM WRF-NSSL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH TSTMS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT. AN ENVIRONMENT ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR HAIL SIZE OF AT LEAST 1.75 INCH IN DIAMETER. THE SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO SLY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WRN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE…ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON FOR AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT.
Since it’s gearing up early, I need to move on to other tasks. We should be on the road shortly after 1. 50-50 shot we’ll go east. The other 50-50 shot is south and a little west.
Wichita: definitely a large hail risk. Tornadoes possible…if they occur, they would be potentially strong.
Final thought: this morning’s weather story from NWS ICT: