A quick hitting impulse will move across the northern plains today, with a rather weak trough/cold front dropping south into eastern Kansas by this afternoon. This frontal boundary may stall along the Kansas Turnpike and I-35 by this afternoon. Moderate instability and increasing convergence along the front, will probably lead to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms developing along the front, for eastern Kansas and the Flint Hills. The initial discrete storms, have a chance to produce large hail and damaging winds, but current thinking is this strong/severe convection will quickly turn into a line of convection by this evening, and quickly become a damaging wind threat of 60 to 75 mph. There is a “brief window of opportunity” for a tornado with any storm that can stay discrete, early on, given the looping directional wind profile ahead of the front. This chance looks slim at best, but a tornado cannot be ruled out.
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