KSStorm.Info Briefing: March 6 & 7, 2022

Portions of central and eastern Kansas will see some precip this afternoon, with totals of a quarter-inch or less. Meanwhile, the first half of the week looks nice, but don't be fooled...colder air & snow are possible late week.
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As of mid morning Sunday, an area of rain and sleet was developing in the Texas panhandle and moving northeast. Additional showers were beginning to develop in western Oklahoma, also moving northeast. Meanwhile, clouds were increasing in southern Kansas ahead of this next wave.

Both the HRRR & NAM 3 KM models agree that this area of rain/sleet will move northeast into Central Kansas — generally southeast of a line from Salina to Dodge City — in the early afternoon and continue into the early evening hours. This quick-hitting system will bring most areas between a tenth and quarter-inch of precip, which will go to help douse any hot spots leftover at the Cottonwood Complex fire. We are not anticipating any travel issues with the sleet/snow, as soil and road temps remain in the upper 40s and the rates of precip will not be high enough to counteract the warm temps at the ground. Highs this afternoon, before the precip, will be in the mid 40s, then fall into the upper 30s once the precip starts.

The precip quickly leaves the area this evening, but will usher in a period of stronger north winds, as skies clear out. Look for lows to be in the low to mid 20s, with winds gusting to 25 mph at times. The wind will create added insult to the colder temps.

Temps on Monday will be about where they’ll top out today – in the 40s – with lots of sunshine and a fresh northwest wind. A jump in temps about 10 degrees is likely for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Skies will turn cloudy Wednesday night as another cold front works down from the north, with lows in the 20s. At the same time the cold front is moving south, a low pressure system will be working out of the four corners region and into Texas. There are differences – as you would expect – between the GFS & Euro models on how they handle this system. The latest run of the GFS implies a stronger lead system, with greater snowfall impacts in the state. The Euro would imply two different pieces (a la the current setup) and not as much precip/snowfall. Stay tuned as we hammer out the details on this next chance of precip.

What we do know is this: colder weather is coming for the back half of the week, with temps likely in the 20s and 30s, lows in the teens. But, there will be some recovery in temps as we head toward the time change next weekend.

Overall, the sustained, significant cold outbreak we had at the end of February was likely the last one of that kind for the season, however, we still expect to see short blasts of cold air from time to time into early April.

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