KSStorm.Info Briefing: March 5 & 6, 2022

The warm streak comes to an end today, with strong winds and high fire danger resulting. There's a chance for rain Sunday, but the best chances will be in Central and Eastern Kansas.

At mid-morning, the dryline is moving faster than expected yesterday and will move into Eastern Kansas within two hours. Behind the dryline, dewpoints are dropping about 20 degrees in two hours, per local observations. Using a blend of the HRRR & NAM 3K models for dewpoints, it shows a 1-2 hour window where dewpoints will get into the upper teens, coincident with peak heating. Combined with the high winds and abundantly dry grasses, fire danger is extreme for this afternoon. If there is any saving grace to this at all, it is that the cold front is moving faster than modeled, so this could limit how long the highest fire danger lasts. That said, if a fire gets going, it will be very hard to stop and become erratic, once the wind shifts. The winds should settle back into the 5-15 mph range after midnight.

Highs this afternoon will make it into the mid 70s, with lows tonight falling into the upper 20s.

Today’s cold front won’t move that far south at all, and in fact, will begin to come back north as a warm front tomorrow. This will increase the clouds and by afternoon, we’ll see scattered showers moving into the area. Morning models are in general agreement that the best chance for more than one-quarter of an inch of precip will be southeast of K-61 highway. Highs will be in the upper 40s.

Precip comes to an end, perhaps as a little bit of snow, on Sunday evening, with little if any snow accumulation expected. Skies will begin to clear overnight and morning lows will be chilly, into the lower 20s with a fresh north wind up to 20 mph, creating an even harsher bite to the temps.

The first half of the week will be dry, with temps warming into the mid 50s under lots of sunshine.

Another cold front is ticketed to move down the front range and into Kansas Wednesday night into Thursday, which will bring an increase in clouds to the area. Models differ greatly on the speed and position of the trough, but there is some consensus that it will bring cold air and perhaps some wintry precipitation to our region. The picture will likely change as the system comes into focus, so stay tuned for further updates.

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