The universal weather condition across Kansas today is wind. South wind is pumping moisture in ahead of a dry line that will develop in central Kansas this afternoon. A strong low pressure system exiting the Rockies today will bring southwest wind to the western half of the state, where enhanced grassland fire conditions exist.
We’ll see three general zones of severe weather possibility across the region:
1) Between Highway 281 and K-14 south of I-70: Marginal storm risk. Some tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind possible. More probable risk west of K-14 is grassland fire.
2) Between K-14 and a line from Salina to Argonia: Slight storm risk. A tornado or two possible, main risk is hail up to 2″.
3) East of a Salina to Norwich line, and north of a Salina to Russell line: Enhanced storm risk. Several tornadoes possible, some may be strong and long-tracked. Highest probabilities for those are in two areas: north of Highway 24, along with east of I-135 and south of Highway 56. Very large to extreme hail, possibly exceeding 3 inches, is possible anywhere east of K-14. Highest probability of largest hail is east of I-135.
SPC Outlook by Risk Type
The probability of a strong (EF2+) tornado is 10% or greater in the entire yellow area.
The probability of very large (2″+) hail exists in the western portion of the yellow area and and all of the red area. The possibility of hail larger than 3″ exists.
I’m not including the graphic, but probability and coverage of the potential for wind damage matches the hail graphic pretty closely. No widespread areas of expected wind gusts above 70mph are identified in the early outlook for today.
- US-281 to K-14 (marginal risk): 4pm-6pm
- K-14 to I-135 (slight risk): 4pm to 8pm
- I-135 and east (enhanced risk): 5pm to 11pm
- east of US-75 (slight risk): 7pm to 1am