South wind today will continue to transport Gulf moisture into the area through the day today, and while we don’t expect severe storms today, tomorrow is another story. A strong cap will be in place today, but strengthening mid-level flow after dark may lead to conditions that would allow a storm or two to develop. SPC has much of the state in a marginal severe storm risk:
Tomorrow is shaping up to be a classic storm day across Kansas. A strong dry line, with increased fire risks west of it, will push into central and south central Kansas at peak heating tomorrow afternoon and should serve as the focus for several supercells capable of very large hail, damaging wind, and a strong tornado or two. A boundary left over from any storms tonight could also serve as a focus point, generally east of I-135, for a locally higher tornado risk. There is an Enhanced risk for severe weather in much of the state tomorrow, and where severe storms happen the impacts could be high, with EF2 and stronger tornadoes, baseball hail, and 70+ mph wind all possible.
A detailed outlook for tomorrow will post later today, after the morning model runs have completed. THis is the beginning of an unsettled period for Kansas weather.