KSStorm.Info Briefing: April 21, 2022

Outside chances for storms the next few days, owing to a strong cap in place most of the time. Any storms that are able to break the cap will quickly become severe, with all risks possible. Today and Saturday contain the highest probabilities for storms.

It has been a while since we’ve seen a three-day stretch with possibilities for severe storms. For most of the period, though, a strong cap will be in place which will prevent widespread storms. Today’s threat is the most conditional of the three days, but if a storm can breach the cap tornadoes, damaging wind and very large hail are possible.  SPC presently has a portion of the state in a Slight Risk for today.

2022 04 21 dy1 outlook

Tomorrow the overall chance for severe weather is higher, as well as a chance for damaging wind gusts up to 60mph. Storms are expected to be concentrated in western Kansas, which has an Enhanced risk posted form SPC. As they move through central Kansas storms are expected to die rather quickly as they encounter a very strong cap.

2022 04 22 dy2 outlook

Saturday a line of storms is expected to develop in central Kansas and push eastward, with embedded cells potentially producing brief tornadoes. There is some disagreement in models, leading Wichita NWS to believe storms will lessen as they approach the Turnpike, while SPC’s slight risk area starts in about the same place. We expect these differences to be resolved in the next 24 hours.

2022 04 23 dy3 outlook

Sunday into next week looks seasonal and dry.

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