KSStorm.Info Briefing: April 12, 2022

A volatile weather day, with rarely-seen non-thunderstorm wind gusts to 70pm causing catastrophic grass fire risks. East of K-14, a few storms may pop this afternoon along a dry line, causing huge hail and tornadoes, but they may stay capped off. Evening and overnight brings a storm line to the eastern 1/3 of Kansas.
2022 04 12 severe impact matrix

There are a number of ways today could go in the record books. While it will be quite warm, we won’t break record highs anywhere in the state. But we will have a LOT of wind. Today is one of the rare instances where we may see wind gusts as high as 70mph — enough to cause structure and tree damage — without any thunderstorms happening. Wind warnings and advisories are posted:

windRelative humidity, especially in the western half of the state, remains nearly desert-like, with 5-15% humidity values common this afternoon. That means any grass fire that starts will be nearly impossible to control — and at some point there will be a sudden switch from south wind to north wind as the front crosses, increasing hazard for our overworked firefighters.

fireSevere Weather

There are two distinct storm possibilities. The first is more conditional, as a very strong cap will be in place, limiting the potential for storms to develop at all. In fact, most of the short-term models do not show the afternoon storms firing, meaning there will be nothing to take advantage of the turbulent atmosphere. If storms do fire very large hail is possible (tennis ball or larger) and some tornadoes may occur. The initial storms would be supercellular in nature, and would be most likely in the I-135 corridor around 5pm or so, moving east-southeast.

Later, after 7pm or so, a line of storms is expected to develop near I-70 along the cold front. This line is more probable, but holds slightly less impact potential, as straight line wind to around 60mph and hail to maybe half dollar size would be the main risk.

For that reason, SPC has a slight risk of severe weather posted from K-14 to I-135 and an enhanced risk east of I-135 this evening.

2022 04 12 spc outlookWe believe the primary risk from the two rounds of storms, if they even form, is the large hail. SPC has a large area of significant hail (2″ or larger) in their outlook:

spcd1hail

I’ll post an update shortly with much more detail for those who would like a deep-dive. We will be chasing today, you can follow along at https://ksstorm.live ando on Twitter at https://twitter.com/KSStormInfo


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