It’s not often I have less confidence in the first 24 hours of a forecast than I do in the 5-8 day period, but today is one of those rare days. The models don’t have a really good handle on the atmosphere, something that started yesterday when much of the state did not see the humidity push out and exceedingly dry conditions take over. As an example, in Wichita we kept dew points in the mid and upper 50’s clear through sunset, when we were supposed to be seeing dew points in the 30’s and even upper 20’s. That played a role in the line of storms that advanced across the eastern third of Kansas being of less impact than forecast.
The same uncertainty persists until this storm clears the area late today, with some models showing rain and even thunder, others showing sprinkles at most, and others staying completely dry. Tonight there are a couple of models forecasting a dusting of snow, but most stay dry. I’m going to stick with the dry forecast models, but I’m freely acknowledging this forecast has high bust potential.
Things firm up and gain consistency tomorrow and beyond, though. Sunshine should prevail across the state by mid-day tomorrow and stay through sometime Sunday. A quick-moving system could bring ligth rain overnight Friday through sunrise Saturday. Models are starting to converge on the potential for a two-day rain event to start next week, but details of where and the exact impact are, as normal, still resolving. Temps should be seasonal, mid-60’s for the most part.