KSStorm.Info Briefing: February 28 & March 1, 2022

Meteorological Spring begins Tuesday with some of the warmest temps Kansas has seen since mid-December. Meanwhile, prospects for rain late in the week look shaky.
sun and clouds

The mid and high clouds that blotted out the sunlight at times during the day will move out overnight, leaving behind clear skies and setting the stage for some of the warmest temps we’ve seen since mid-December’s wind storm. Lows Tuesday morning will be near 30 with a light wind.

Tuesday sees the start of a four-day stretch of 70+ degree weather on Tuesday, with highs will be in the mid 70s. The warmest day of the stretch comes on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, before cooling back into the low and mid 70s for Thursday and Friday, due to an increase in moisture. Record highs are likely for Wednesday and Thursday, with the records for tomorrow and Friday likely out of reach.

Pertaining to fire weather concerns, the good news is that we are not looking for winds to be all that strong for the next couple of days, with wind speeds generally in the 6 to 12 mph range. High fire danger is possible in eastern Kansas Thursday, as winds turn to the southeast and gust to 30 mph. Any fire that starts on Thursday, could be tough to handle.

As for rain chances heading into the weekend, models and their associated ensemble groups have trended drier, especially for the Friday and Friday night time frame. Models were generally consistent in bringing in a large punch of dry air to the region and forcing most of the precip north and east of the area.

Obviously, we’re still five days out from this happening, but will keep tabs on changes in the model solutions and how they will impact sensible weather across the region.

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