Main forecast challenges continue to be the temps for today & Monday, the timing of the polar front Monday night, and light snow chances for the Wednesday night-Thursday night timeframe.
Bumped highs up this afternoon across south-central Kansas, both over and off of the snowpack. Highs will be in the upper 60s with southwest winds at 10-15 mph. With a few passing clouds tonight, temps will fall to near 40 by Monday morning. President’s Day looks to be splendid, with highs getting into the lower to middle 70s with southwest winds gusting to 25 mph.
The polar front moves into Northern Kansas during the early afternoon hours Monday, with the front approaching I-70 by late afternoon, K-61 by early evening, the Kansas Turnpike by mid evening, with the front moving out of the area by midnight. The HRRR model is about 1-2 hours faster with the front than the NAM 3KM model is, but regardless of when the front passes, clouds will thicken up and winds become gusty from the north, with gusts to 35 mph. Daybreak temps Tuesday will be in the mid teens.
Partly to mostly sunny skies will be the rule Tuesday, with highs in the mid 20s, but it’ll never feel that warm, thanks to a blustery north wind. Winds will subside Tuesday night, as lows fall into the mid single digits.
Clouds will thicken up during the day Wednesday, with highs in the mid 20s. Light snow breaks out Wednesday night, as lows fall to near 10 degrees. Light to occasionally moderate snow will continue into the day Thursday, with highs staying in the teens. Right now, look for accumulations of 1-3 inches across the state. This will be a fluffy, low moisture content snow, so it’ll be easy to stack up. Snow comes to an end Thursday night, and depending on how soon the clouds depart, we could see temps Friday morning at or near zero.
A warming trend starts Friday, with highs in the upper 20s. Next weekend looks to be near seasonal values, with temps in the 40s.