KSStorm.Info Briefing: February 14 & 15, 2022

High fire danger, strong winds, and mild temps will be the weather story for Tuesday, but we're keeping our eyes on a developing winter storm.
Sunny Skies

Tuesday will be the mildest day of the next seven as we see strong south winds elevate temps to near 70 degrees, with skies becoming partly sunny during the afternoon. The strong winds, which could gust to 45 mph, will make any fires extremely difficult to contain. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Clouds will continue to increase Tuesday night, with lows falling into the mid 40s. Winds will also continue to be strong from the south, with gusts to 40 mph. It would not be a shock to see the wind & fire products extended into Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be a day of change, as a cold front moves south across the area. There are timing differences with the frontal passage, with this evening’s HRRR model rolling it through the area during the early afternoon Wednesday. The European model is the next fastest, moving it through in the mid-afternoon, the GFS moves it through during the late evening hours. All of this will have a HUGE impact on the precip type, as it will be a shallow arctic airmass. The sooner it moves through an area before the precip starts, the fewer mixing issues there will be when the precip starts, since there will be time for the cold air to deepen sufficiently. If a faster frontal passage is realized, temps will likely make the lower 50s before steadily falling in the afternoon. Shallow, arctic fronts like what will move through on Wednesday usually move faster than models forecast, so be prepared for changes to the temps during the daylight hours.

The main impulse begins to move out from the intermountain west on Wednesday evening. Initially, we will see light rain showers southeast of the Kansas Turnpike, with a mix of rain/freezing rain/sleet slightly northwest of there, and a change to all snow northwest of K-61 highway. Again, if the cold front moves through quicker: we’ll see more snow. A slower passage; mixing issues that will impact snow totals. Precip continues into Thursday, with a change to all snow by mid-morning Thursday. Winds will create blowing and drifting issues across the state, with winds in the 20-40 mph range.

Here is our first snowfall outlook:

snowfall outlook first call 2 14 22

Scott and I will continue to pour over the forecast data as it comes in overnight and tomorrow morning. We plan to have our first call on snowfall totals tomorrow afternoon.

Take the nice, but windy weather on Tuesday to prepare for another shot of winter weather in Kansas.

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