The first 48-60 hours of the forecast continue to be pretty static; sunny days and clear nights with an overall warming trend into the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday. The wildfire risk will increase to the extreme category for Tuesday, as south winds increase to 20-35 mph over dry vegetation. Any fire that ignites will be difficult to contain.
Clouds are forecast to increase Tuesday night as moisture deepens ahead of our next storm system. At the same time, a cold front will move southward and by Wednesday evening, will be southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. We could see a few showers develop along the front, but the precip should be fairly light.
Over the last 24-36 hours, the models have trended toward a more progressive, open wave (GFS solution we discussed yesterday) which has limited precip chances. However, the last couple of runs of the GFS model has been trending toward a deeper wave, while the Euro has remained consistent. We have seen this song and dance play out several times during this winter; where models have a strong wave, open it up, only to trend back stronger once it moves into the US upper air network. Would not be shocked to see the models trend toward a stronger solution in the next 24 hours, once the storm moves onto the Oregon coast Monday.
We believe it is too early to highlight specific impacts to the area and will be in a much better position to do that in about 36 hours. Right now, feel the best chances for precip totals of a quarter-inch or more will be southeast of a line from Salina to Dodge City. We will continue to refine the forecast over the next several days and hopefully, the models & their ensembles come to an agreement.
After the storm passes by Thursday afternoon, skies will clear out and we’ll return to above normal temps and dry weather next weekend.