I’ve Seen Fire and I’ve Seen Rain

With apologies to James Taylor (see an entertaining clip of an update to the song here), that title could describe this weekend. A lee-side system will develop over the weekend leading to windy conditions early on and chances for rain Sunday and Monday.


Grassland fire is a concern about anywhere in the state today as winds once again pick up. Outdoor burning is not advised today anywhere in Kansas.

From NWS Dodge City:

Cloud cover increases Sunday as the next disturbance moves northeast through the Desert Southwest and into the Central Plains. Rain chances start to increase Sunday night and continue through Monday morning with a better chance the farther east you go.

From NWS Wichita:

Despite strong bulk shear, little to no instability and weak lapse rates will mean chances of thunderstorms during this period will remain quite low. A modest uptick in CAPE during the late morning or early afternoon on Monday may produce slightly better but still rather low thunderstorm chances. No strong or severe storms are expected if any thunderstorms do develop and rain chances will quickly diminish during the day on Monday.

The models disagree on timing for the rainfall, which I expect at the 3-day range. The GFS is about 6 hours faster than the European Model. But the models agree there won’t be much in the way of really heavy rainfall, with many locations receiving an inch or less.

Strong or severe storms are NOT expected with this system.

We’re watching the mid-week time frame, as we may have enough moisture return for at least isolated severe storms in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Monday’s weekly outlook will take a closer look at that possibility.

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