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In a nutshell, the risks for Kansas have gone down. There are a couple of models that still favor the warm front making it a long ways north — one has it almost to the Kansas/Nebraska state line. But the consensus is that the stronger storms will be on the dry line this afternoon, which should rest pretty mush along the border between the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma.
Nonetheless, there is some limited chance for Kansas, in approximately the area I identified earlier this week to our KSStorm Insiders on the Insiders Facebook group. Roughly, that is in the vicinity of Coldwater, Protection, Meade, maybe as far west as Sublette. The key in Kansas is whether the cap (an area of warm air above the cooler surface air) weakens enough near the dryline for rising air to break through. That’s a big if, really. As I said yesterday on Facebook:
After further discussion with Matt, I’m going to shift initial target further south into Oklahoma. There are some things I see that I like in the triangle between Clinton, OK, Canadian, TX and Woodward, OK. And making that investment of time doesn’t prevent comintg back north into the original target area if things develop as some of the models show.
Insiders, don’t forget the with-audio live stream will be up as well as the private chat room. I’ll start those about noon as we get out of town. The stream is available on KSStorm.TV and the chat instructions and password can be accessed from your private insider’s home page.
Here’s the general impact expectations for Kansas, mostly the southern reaches, IF the cap breaks.
And finally, a look at tomorrow’s SPC risk areas/probabilities:
Talk to you from the road later today!