Stormy Days in eastern Kansas

Eastern Kansas, particularly from I-135 east, is to be the focus of a couple of days of severe weather possibilities. Right now, the outlooks look like this:


NWS Wichita Outlook Discussion

Warm mid-level temperatures should prohibit thunderstorm development until later tonight when elevated moistening/destabilization north of the warm front commences. This looks to give way to elevated storms developing mainly north of highway 400 in southeast Kansas. Shear/instability combo favors severe storms with large hail being the primary hazard from the most intense storms. The storms will move northeast into Missouri with Friday looking dry during the day.


SPC notes on this risk

Surface dewpoints south of the warm front and to the east of the dryline should reach the mid to upper 60s F by late afternoon. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast across the northwestern edge of the moist sector across the eastern half of Oklahoma and possibly into far southern Kansas. Thunderstorms appear likely to first develop along the warm front in southeast Kansas during the early evening and move east-northeastward into western and central Missouri. Additional storms may develop to the east of the dryline, from south-central Kansas southward into north-central Oklahoma by mid evening. These storms should move east-northeastward across northeastern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas.
Tomorrow’s tornado risk would be from Wichita south to about Blackwell, east to the Joplin area, and along and south of US 54. The model disagree right now on the quality of the instability that would be present. But if storms are able to get going in, say, the Enid to Tonkawa area around 7pm, I think it may be game on for a couple tornadoes through 10pm or so anywhere south of US-400 and east of the Turnpike.
No chasing plans tonight, I’ll be spending a good part of the day trying to get ready to be able to chase tomorrow. I’m going to do a separate post today concerning my thoughts about chasing/spotting storms during the current virus concerns. Suffice to say, I think there are limited times where this is a legitimate activity, and it will be only those times that I go out this season.

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