The drought will take a breather in western Kansas this week, but not be totally relieved. Precipitation chances appear pretty good in much of the state all week long, for once not missing southwest Kansas. The focus for possible severe weather is mostly Wednesday night into Thursday.
SPC has a slight risk area just to our south, with some mention that a storm or two could end up north of the state line. This is far enough out still that it could be a little slower than forecast, which would result in heavier rain in southeast Kansas. Here are the relevant discussions from NWS offices around the region:
NWS Dodge City
A large trough with a closed low developing in northeast Colorado by Thursday afternoon should set the stage for increasing winds across much of southwest Kansas and the potential for strong winds exist by Wednesday afternoon and evening into Thursday. Sustained winds of 30 mph with gusts in the 45-50 mph range can`t be ruled out at this point.
Flooding rain will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, especially over southeast KS. While widespread severe
storms are not expected, it looks like there will be enough elevated instability for at least some strong storms. Widespread showers and storms are expected again Wed night. Flooding also looks possible Wednesday night and would be further enhanced if it falls on areas that received heavy rain Tuesday night.
NWS Norman, OK
Showers and storms are expected to develop late Wednesday afternoon and night. Storms should initially develop along a
dryline in the Panhandles and then grow upscale during the evening and overnight. Damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall can be expected, especially across the western half of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Storms may have a tendency to become linear along the eastward-moving front as a southerly low-level jet markedly strengthens overnight across the southern/central Plains. If this occurs, then damaging winds would be the main threat. But, given the degree of low-level shear forecast, a few tornadoes would also be a concern. Sufficient instability to support surface-based storms is less clear with northward extent into parts of central/eastern KS.