One more sunny day, then we enter a stretch of about 5 days of unsettled weather. The system that will be responsible for the batch of rain and snow we’ll see tomorrow afternoon into Monday has come ashore over California, and as it has entered better sampling the models have come into better agreement.
Today will be mostly sunny, filtered at times with mid and high-level clouds. High 44
Partly cloudy tonight, the low 28.
A lead impulse that wasn’t even on the model output yesterday now looks to traverse our area tomorrow afternoon and evening, bringing a change for patchy drizzle starting in the early afternoon and going into the overnight. We’ll remain above freezing for most of this precipitation round except in the northern reaches of the listening area. High tomorrow 43, the low 35 with a little wind in the overnight hours.
There’s good model agreement for Sunday. A deep area of upper low pressure will sink slowly south into the Northern Plains with some of this Arctic air trying to creep into northern KS on Sunday. Sun evening into Mon morning the main piece of energy is expected to lift out of the Desert Southwest and across the TX Panhandle/OK by Mon morning. This will be the time period with the best chance at accumulating snowfall. Sunday high: 42, low 28.
The best snowfall chances are generally along and especially northwest of a Hutch to Marion line late Sun night into early Mon afternoon. For a winter system this will have an unusual amount of energy aloft, so there could be some surprising differences in snowfall totals over a very few miles. As typically occurs with these systems, the rain/snow line will likely be adjusted several times over the next few days which will impact the location of the heaviest snowfall. We’re not ready to put a number on it for Hutch, since the models still show a wide spread in snow totals.
Snow should affect us most between midnight Monday morning and about 3pm. Monday’s high 34, the low 21.
The pattern looks to remain active through most of next week. Both ECMWF and GFS have a steady stream of upper impulses lifting out of the Southern Rockies and tracking across the Central Plains for the Tue through Wed night time frame. The most impressive of these waves is expected to slide through Tue night through Wed and may bring another chance at some wintry precip. Well below normal temps also look likely through these extended periods.
Tuesday: Cloudy and cold with occcasional rain or snow daytime. Tuesday high mid 30’s, low mid 20’s.
Wednesday: Patchy rain or snow, High around 40, low mid-20’s.
Thursday: Becoming mostly sunny, the high upper 40’s.