Severe thunderstorms chances increase for late this afternoon and this evening. Especially for areas of western Kansas.
This setup is very similar to the late afternoon/evening of April 15th, but also different in a lot of ways. (insert scary music here). The dryline looks to setup west of Dodge City or potentially as far west as Garden City, Low level moisture, ahead of the dryline, appears to be better than the April 15th day, but severe storm initiation may be delayed once again (like April 15th), as a fairly stout elevated mixed layer (EML, or cap) will be in place. This should keep the storm coverage isolated. Here’s one model’s prediction on what the radar could look like at 8pm:
But the big difference this time is, storm dynamics look stronger. So the potential for a big isolated supercell is there. I think a few isolated big supercells will develop late this afternoon, but probably closer to sunset, as stronger upper dynamics erode the CAP. A moderately unstable airmass will be in place, with initial supercells capable of producing, very large hail (2 to 3 inches), and damaging winds of 70 mph But as the evening progresses, any supercell that stays discrete, will have an increasing chance of producing a night time tornado. Low level directional shear will increase going into the evening, which would pose a threat of a STRONG tornado, given the long looping directional wind profile. This threat area will be mainly over western KS, but could, extend as far north as I-70 (depending on how far north the warm front gets) , and eventually progress into central KS, if a long tracked supercell materializes. There is a small caveat to this analysis, in that, quite a few of the short range High Resolution models, keep things capped and only produce an Isolated storm at best. So in the words of Lee Child’s novel character, Jack Reacher “prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.”
SPC Outlook
Probability by Risk
Safety Reminder
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