Thursday Update: Risk Shifts North

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By Scott Roberts

In the mid-day update today, SPC has shifted tomorrow’s slight risk area pretty substantially to the north. That comes more in line with latest models which show the warm front coming further north and opening up a larger warm sector in this system.

This was the earlier outlook, as shown on the Statewide Briefing Graphics page maintained by NWS.

 

This is the outlook issued mid-day today, directly from SPC:

Concurrently, SPC has added 5% and 15% probability areas for severe hail tomorrow.

The shape of the yellow areas explains what’s going on: There will be a low pressure system ejecting from the southwest into the Texas panhandle which will track across northern Oklahoma. Its warm front will surge north to the US-50 corridor in Kansas and overriding moist air will lead to elevated thunderstorms producing hail to a little larger than quarter-size.

This would be a risk for the second storm area, in the afternoon, not the one we expect a few hours either side of sunrise. That round should stay below severe limits, producing dime- to penny-size hail.

[W]ith robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream.

Day 2 Convective Outlook, issued mid-day 06 Mar 2024 for 07 Mar 2024
Storm Prediction Center ~ Norman, Oklahoma

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