SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2020-04-07 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020

Valid 071700Z - 081200Z

Minor modifications have been made to the ongoing elevated areas
primarily based on current surface observations. Locally critical
conditions remain possible in parts of western/central Nebraska, but
duration of these conditions is uncertain given a relaxing surface
pressure gradient with time. Locally elevated conditions are also
possible within terrain-favored locations of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Further details are found in the previous discussion
below.

..Wendt.. 04/07/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will remain fortified across the central and
southern CONUS, as a trough aloft meanders over California. Farther
north, multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge across the
central Plains, accompanied by 500 mb winds potentially exceeding 50
knots. As such, surface lee troughing and associated downslope
westerly flow will promote dry and breezy conditions across portions
of the central and southern Plains that will be modestly conducive
for wildfire spread.

...Central High Plains...
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected across the
Nebraska Panhandle into the Sandhills, coinciding with 20-25% RH for
several hours during the afternoon. Finer (i.e. 10- and 100-hr)
fuels have recently cured adequately to support some wildfire-spread
potential, warranting the maintenance of an elevated area. A few
model guidance members depict widespread 20% RH across the
Sandhills, indicative of critical conditions. Nonetheless,
disagreement among model members showing widespread critical RH
precludes a critical area at this time, though at least localized
critical conditions are expected.

...Southern High Plains...
Upper level support will be lacking compared to regions farther
north and as such, weaker downslope flow is expected across the
southern High Plains during the afternoon. While RH may drop to 10%
by afternoon peaking heating, only a limited portion of central into
eastern New Mexico will likely see surface westerly winds exceeding
15 mph for more than a couple of hours. Nonetheless, fuels across
this area are dry enough to support some wildfire-spread potential,
with an elevated area kept in place across central/eastern New
Mexico.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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