2020-04-07 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z Minor modifications have been made to the ongoing elevated areas primarily based on current surface observations. Locally critical conditions remain possible in parts of western/central Nebraska, but duration of these conditions is uncertain given a relaxing surface pressure gradient with time. Locally elevated conditions are also possible within terrain-favored locations of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Further details are found in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 04/07/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will remain fortified across the central and southern CONUS, as a trough aloft meanders over California. Farther north, multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge across the central Plains, accompanied by 500 mb winds potentially exceeding 50 knots. As such, surface lee troughing and associated downslope westerly flow will promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of the central and southern Plains that will be modestly conducive for wildfire spread. ...Central High Plains... 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected across the Nebraska Panhandle into the Sandhills, coinciding with 20-25% RH for several hours during the afternoon. Finer (i.e. 10- and 100-hr) fuels have recently cured adequately to support some wildfire-spread potential, warranting the maintenance of an elevated area. A few model guidance members depict widespread 20% RH across the Sandhills, indicative of critical conditions. Nonetheless, disagreement among model members showing widespread critical RH precludes a critical area at this time, though at least localized critical conditions are expected. ...Southern High Plains... Upper level support will be lacking compared to regions farther north and as such, weaker downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. While RH may drop to 10% by afternoon peaking heating, only a limited portion of central into eastern New Mexico will likely see surface westerly winds exceeding 15 mph for more than a couple of hours. Nonetheless, fuels across this area are dry enough to support some wildfire-spread potential, with an elevated area kept in place across central/eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...