Conditional Risks Friday, Impacts Adjusted

A very brief update to the 5/17 outlook. Full briefing planned by 6am Friday.

I wanted to share three things with you: updated graphics, the slides from today’s Media/EM briefing from NWS Dodge City, and my latest target thoughts.

Updated SPC Graphics

As I write this, the first Day 1 graphics for tomorrow’s risk are due from SPC in just a few hours. This is how the probabilities looked this evening:

Updated Risk Thoughts

These are my take on the risks, and are enhanced by one step from SPC due to the reasons NWS Dodge City upgraded their outlook today: the coverage of storms is expected to be isolated to scattered, not widespread enough to warrant an SPC ENHANCED risk. However, any storm that gets going will rapidly intensify and become severe, with ping pong ball-size and larger hail and strong tornadoes. There is a possibility of a long-track strong tornado, too.

NWS Dodge City EM/Media Briefing Slides

[pdf-embedder url=”https://www.ksstorm.info/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Email_Severe_Winter_Briefing_May16.pdf”%5D

Target Area

I will refine this over the next several hours, but I’m looking primarily inside the area outlined in yellow.

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This is not looking good..

We’ve been hearing about worsening fire conditions for some time now. This is the time of year we’re used to fire risks ramping up, which the dead grass is standing and spring rains have not arrived. The extensive drought and an approaching system make the next three days very risky for wildfires.

Friday/Saturday Event Update

The SPC Outlook for Friday through Tuesday is succinct: “An active stretch for severe weather will occur during the entire D4-8 period, mainly over the central and southern Plains.”

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